Crypto markets cycle through bull, bear, and sideways phases—each demanding bespoke tactics, risk controls, and psychological resilience. In this deep‐dive guide, we cover every detail you need:

1. Phase Definitions & Transition Signals
2. 20 Bull Market Tactics
3. 15 Bear Market Survival Methods
4. 10 Sideways Market Playbooks
5. Emotional & Risk Calibration
6. Custom Indicator Toolbox
7. Historical Case Studies
8. Review & Reflection Templates

1. Phase Definitions & Transition Signals

Bull Market

• Definition: Sustained higher highs and lows on strong volume and sentiment.
• Signals:
  • 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA
  • On-chain metrics: rising active addresses, net positive exchange inflows
  • Fear & Greed Index ≥ 60
• Transition Cue: Pullback to 50-day MA on increased volume confirms ongoing uptrend.

Bear Market

• Definition: Consistent lower highs and lows, driven by negative news and capitulation.
• Signals:
  • 50-day MA crosses below 200-day MA
  • Falling open interest on futures exchanges
  • Fear & Greed Index ≤ 30
• Transition Cue: “Capitulation candle” (large volume spike with long wick) often marks local bottoms.

Sideways Market

• Definition: Horizontal price range with dwindling volume after major moves.
• Signals:
  • ADX < 20 (weak trend)
  • Fear & Greed Index between 30–60
  • Volume contraction relative to prior trend
• Transition Cue: Volume breakout beyond the range boundary signals new trend.

2. 20 Bull Market Tactics

1. Simple MA Crossover: Enter when 20-MA > 50-MA > 200-MA.
2. Breakout Confirmation: Buy on daily close above resistance with +30% volume.
3. Pyramid Scaling: Add 25% of position every 5% price advance.
4. ATR-Based Trailing Stop: Trail at 1.5× ATR to lock gains.
5. Partial Take-Profit: Sell 20% at +20%, another 20% at +50%.
6. Sector Rotation: Rotate between DeFi, NFTs, and layer-1s based on on-chain growth.
7. Relative Strength Rank: Weekly reallocate into the top 5 coins by RS.
8. Bitcoin Dominance Gauge: When BTC dominance dips <40%, shift into select altcoins.
9. Social Sentiment Neutral Filter: Enter when Fear & Greed flips from extreme fear to “fear.”
10. Leverage Up To 2×: Only when 200-MA slope is >0.5° on daily chart.
11. Volume-Price Divergence: Buy when price makes new high but volume picks up more.
12. On-Chain Accumulation Signal: Enter when top whale wallets accumulate 5%+ in 24h.
13. Weekly Rebalance: Lock 50% gains into stablecoins weekly.
14. Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Entry only when 4H and daily trends align.
15. Cross-Exchange Arbitrage: Exploit small price differences on major exchanges.
16. News Catalyst Plays: Enter pre-approved news catalysts (e.g. ETF approvals).
17. High-Cap Focus: During early bull, stick to top-10 market-cap coins for safety.
18. Stop-Loss Below Key Support: Use nearest swing low minus buffer.
19. FOMO Check Rule: Skip trades if RSI daily >80.
20. Holiday Risk Off: Reduce leverage 50% before major holidays.

3. 15 Bear Market Survival Methods

1. Stablecoin Float: Keep 40% in USDC/USDT.
2. Low-Beta Asset Focus: Trade BTC/ETH over micro-caps.
3. Short-Side Futures: Size at ≤0.5% of portfolio on clear breakdowns.
4. Put Option Spreads: Buy long puts with capped risk.
5. Mean Reversion Bounces: Buy oversold dips with strict 1% ATR stop.
6. Inverse Tokens (e.g. BITI): Hedge allocation with 10% exposure.
7. DeFi Yield Farming: Allocate 10% to high-quality staking with <5% impermanent loss.
8. Volatility Play: Sell covered calls on stable assets.
9. Grid Trading: Set narrow grids around established lower range.
10. Paper Trade New Strategies: Backtest 1–2 novel setups per month.
11. Stable Dividend Tokens: Small allocations to tokens with predictable payouts.
12. Lower Position Sizing: Risk ≤0.75% per trade.
13. Exit On Macro Triggers: Pre-defined news events (regulation updates).
14. Risk-Off Days: No trading on days with VIX-like crypto index >75.
15. Skill Development Block: Dedicate 1 day/week to journaling and strategy refinement.

4. 10 Sideways Market Playbooks

1. Range Scalping: Buy at support, sell at resistance using limit orders.
2. RSI Oscillator Trades: Enter oversold (<30) and exit overbought (>70) on 4H.
3. Tick-Size Grid Bot: Automate grid trades with 1% increments.
4. Staking & Liquidity Pools: Deploy idle capital in top-rated DeFi protocols.
5. Mean-Reversion Candles: Trade pin bars and dojis at range extremes.
6. Delta-Neutral Strategies: Combine futures hedges with spot positions.
7. Statistical Arbitrage: Monitor coin pairs with high correlation divergence.
8. Weekly Option Iron Condors: Sell strangles to profit from low volatility.
9. Sector Watchlist Prep: Research next-cycle top sectors and build entries.
10. Volatility Breakout Alert: Trigger on 2× ATR spike for breakout setups.

5. Emotional & Risk Calibration

• Dynamic Risk Sizing: Position size = base % × (20/Current ATR).
• Emotion Scorecard: Rate fear, greed, confidence 1–10 each morning.
• Automated Circuit Breakers: Pause trading for 24h after 3 consecutive losses.
• Recovery Rituals: Mindful breathing and 10-min walk between sessions.

6. Custom Indicator Toolbox

• Composite Cycle Index: Weighted sum of MA slope (30%), ADX (30%), and volume trend (40%).
• Sentiment Shift Alert: Email when Fear & Greed crosses 30/70 thresholds.
• Whale Flow Scanner: Real-time alerts on >1,000 BTC wallet movements.
• Range Contraction Detector: Bollinger Band width <1.5 × standard deviation.

7. Historical Case Studies

• 2017–2018 Bull vs. 2020–2021 DeFi Boom:
  • 2017: Altseason peaked at 72% BTC dominance dip.
  • 2021: DeFi TVL surge by 4,000%—less hype, more fundamentals.
• 2022 Bear Capitulation vs. 2023 Range Accumulation:
  • 2022: 42% BTC drop in 3 months; capitulation candle on June 18.
  • 2023: 3-month sideways range with 60% lower volume—prime accumulation.

8. Review & Reflection Templates

Weekly Cycle Review

• Current phase?
• Top 3 performing tactics?
• Emotional triggers logged?
• Adjustments needed?

Monthly Cycle Audit

• Strategy wins vs. losses?
• Risk rule adherence?
• Indicator accuracy?
• New insights to integrate?

Final Thoughts

Adapting your approach to each market cycle transforms reactive trading into strategic mastery. This exhaustive playbook—with over 45 concrete tactics, advanced calibration methods, and real-world case studies—gives you everything you need to thrive in bull, bear, and sideways environments.

✅ Action Step

1. Identify today’s cycle via your Composite Cycle Index.
2. Choose one bull, bear, or sideways tactic above.
3. Execute with journaling and record results in Crypto Mental Log.

Cycle awareness is power—wield it.